为什么一个 AI 比四个更好:Anthropic 多智能体实验与 LLM 同质化
Anthropic 用经典隐藏信息实验测试多智能体决策:四个智能体共享的证据指向错误选项,只有少数或单个智能体掌握正确线索,讨论后多数模型家族仅在 17-36% 的运行中选对,而把全部证据交给单个智能体时几乎每次都能答对,只有 Mythos 5 以约 85% 的表现部分例外。作者认为原因有二:LLM 缺乏多样性,30 个智能体做同一编码任务会有 18 个取相同的 git 分支名;智能体也缺乏让人类群体稳健的制度,如声誉、追责和对少数异议者的保护。文章还提到 State of AI 报告发现 token 弹性偏低,价格下降 10% 只带来 12-18% 的使用增长,并引用 Patrick Saner 的观点,认为真正重要的是完成一个有用工作单元的成本。
hidden-profile problem: when groups discuss what everyone already knows and don’t get to the knowledge that only one member holds. Anthropic has now run that classic experiment on agents: four agents must arrive at a decision. The evidence they hold in common points to the wrong option, while only a few agents (or just one) have the facts that lead to a correct decision. Getting it right means a small set of agents pressing its private facts and the others trusting them over the apparent consens
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