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星期三

  1. Sam Altman Blog

    Sam Altman:温和的奇点正在逐步到来

    Sam Altman 认为人类已进入通往数字超级智能的起飞阶段,但奇点更可能以渐进、可适应的方式发生。文章预计智能体、科学发现和现实任务机器人将相继发展,智能与能源在 2030s 变得更加充裕;同时主张解决对齐问题,并让超级智能廉价、广泛可用且不过度集中。

    very important. The sooner the world can start a conversation about what these broad bounds are and how we define collective alignment, the better We (the whole industry, not just OpenAI) are building a brain for the world. It will be extremely personalized and easy for everyone to use; we will be limited by good ideas. For a long time, technical people in the startup industry have made fun of “the idea guys”; people who had an idea and were looking for a team to build it. It now looks to me lik

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星期四

  1. Shunyu Yao:Blog

    姚顺雨:AI 进入后半场,评估比训练更重要

    姚顺雨在博客中提出 AI 已进入后半场,重心将从开发新训练方法与模型转向定义问题,评估变得比训练更重要。他认为 RL 终于能泛化,语言预训练提供的先验、把推理加入动作空间以及环境三者构成了通用配方,使基准被标准化攻克。由此他提出效用问题,指出评估假设与真实世界存在差异,例如评估默认自动运行且任务独立同分布,而现实中智能体需与人持续交互、任务按顺序累积。

    algorithm that only excels in toy settings. So why don’t we first figure out the environment we actually want to solve, then find the algorithm best suited for it? That’s exactly OpenAI’s initial plan. It built gym, a standard RL environment for various games, then the World of Bits and Universe projects, trying to turn the Internet or computer into a game. A good plan, isn’t it? Once we turn all digital worlds into an environment, solve it with smart RL algorithms, we have digital AGI. A good

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星期五

  1. METR Blog精选

    METR:AI 模型在公开部署前就可能带来危险

    METR 发文指出,当前前沿实验室的安全政策多聚焦部署前测试,但模型在公开部署前就可能带来风险,包括模型权重被窃取滥用、实验室员工内部滥用,以及 AI 智能体在训练或内部使用中自主追求非预期目标。文章建议把重心转向更早的能力测试与预测、模型权重安全与内部监控、以及透明披露和举报人保护等政策。

    {\url{https://metr.org/blog/2025-01-17-ai-models-dangerous-before-public-deployment/}} , year = {2025} , month = {01} , } Many frontier AI safety policies from scaling labs (e.g. OpenAI’s Preparedness Framework, Google DeepMind’s Frontier Safety Framework, etc.), as well as past work by third party evaluators including UK AISI , Apollo Research , and METR , focus on pre-deployment testing – ensuring that the AI model is safe and that the lab has sufficient security before the lab deploys the mo

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星期一

  1. Benedict Evans:Blog

    搜索竞争:Google 默认协议被判违法之后

    Benedict Evans 分析美国法院本周裁定 Google 的默认搜索协议违法一事,指出搜索是依靠用户行为强化的飞轮,Google 2022 年向苹果支付约 200 亿美元、向其他公司支付 100 亿美元换取默认地位,美国 50% 的搜索发生在有默认合同的渠道上。他认为法院大概率会叫停 TAC 支付,但后续补救措施效果不明,苹果、三星、微软与 Google 之间的博弈结果难以预判。他还提到 LLM 的出现改变了人们对搜索本身的想象,可能成为绕开 Google 强化学习引擎的入口,但对幻觉问题能否被现有厂商更好处理持怀疑态度。

    any has won, and network effects have become self-perpetuating and insurmountable, then you don’t beat that by making the same thing but slightly better, and getting a judge to give you an entry point. You win by making the old thing irrelevant. Google didn’t build a better PC operating system or a Win32 office suite, Facebook didn’t do better search, and Apple didn’t do a better Blackberry. And OpenAI got 100m users in two months without going to a judge. Are better models better? The AI summer

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星期二

  1. Benedict Evans:Blog

    Benedict Evans:AI 的夏天,LLM 是技术而非产品

    Benedict Evans 撰文指出,ChatGPT 两个月达到 1 亿用户,但多数人试用一两次后不再回来,过去 9-12 个月活跃用户增长有限。他认为 LLM 本身不是产品,而是需要被拆解重组为新的交互方式和工具的技术,企业侧目前仍以试点为主,例如 Accenture 去年宣布的 3 亿美元生成式 AI 业务对应 300 个项目。他同时提到 Morgan Stanley 的 CIO 调查显示 30% 的大公司 CIO 预计 2026 年前不会部署任何相关应用。

    ted numbers of people had both heard of it and used it. As with every observation about the acceleration of tech adoption, a lot of this is ‘standing on the shoulders of giants’ - OpenAI didn’t have to wait for people to buy devices or for telcos to build DSL or 3G. For consumers, ChatGPT is just a website or an app, and (to begin with) it could ride on all of the infrastructure we’ve built over the last 25 years. So a huge number of people went off to try it last year. The problem is that most

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