2025 年大语言模型回顾:进展、局限与未来预测
Sebastian Raschka 回顾 2025 年大语言模型发展,认为主要进展来自 RLVR、GRPO、推理时扩展、工具调用及架构效率优化,而非单纯扩大预训练规模。他指出公开基准已难以可靠反映真实能力,并预测 2026 年 RLVR 将扩展到数学和编码以外的领域,本地工具调用与智能体能力会逐步普及。文章同时主张将 AI 作为提升专业工作的伙伴,而非完全替代人的思考、编码与研究。
s year); MCP (joining the Linux Foundation) has already become the standard for tool and data access in agent-style LLM systems (for now); I expected the ecosystem to remain more fragmented in 2025, until at least 2026 9.2 Predictions for 2026 We will likely see an industry-scale, consumer-facing diffusion model for cheap, reliable, low-latency inference, with Gemini Diffusion probably going first; The open-weight community will slowly but steadily adopt LLMs with local tool use and increasingly
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