Ethan Mollick reviews 30 months of AI development in charts
On the release day of his new book Co-Existence, Ethan Mollick used charts to review the AI progress in the 30 months since his previous book Co-Intelligence was published. He said that since GPT-4, 20 models have successively taken the top spot, and 180 models were stronger than GPT-4 at release, 19 of which can run on modern smartphones; the METR long-task benchmark showed that the amount of human work AI can complete increased from 4 minutes in 2024 to 17 hours in April 2026, and the benchmark was subsequently discontinued because it could no longer measure accurately. He proposed a third mode of collaboration beyond centaur and cyborg: conjurer, that is, summoning agents, assigning tasks, and evaluating results. The charts in this article were completed by Opus 5.5 in Claude Projects orchestrating multiple agents.
On the release day of his new book Co-Existence, Ethan Mollick used charts to review the AI progress in the 30 months since his previous book Co-Intelligence was published. He said that since GPT-4, 20 models have successively taken the top spot, and 180 models were stronger than GPT-4 at release, 19 of which can run on modern smartphones; the METR long-task benchmark showed that the amount of human work AI can complete increased from 4 minutes in 2024 to 17 hours in April 2026, and the benchmar
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