Gaogong Consulting predicts that more than 15% of humanoid robot companies will be eliminated in the next three years
At the 2026 Gaogong Humanoid Robot Annual Conference, Gaogong Consulting predicted that in the next three years, more than 15% of humanoid robot companies will go bankrupt or be acquired, and that the sector will see its first major wave of consolidation in 2027. China's full-unit humanoid robot shipments this year are expected to exceed 50,000 units, lower than the forecast of more than 60,000 units at the beginning of the year; in the first three quarters, financing in the body segment reached 81.82 billion yuan and financing in the components segment reached 14.83 billion yuan, with financing cooling starting in the fourth quarter. Gaogong Consulting also expects the price war to continue in 2027, with small-size full units under 1.2 meters falling from 20,000 yuan this year to 18,000 yuan.
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Gaogong Consulting provides specific forecasts for humanoid robot shipments, financing, and prices, which readers can use to judge the pace of industry consolidation and changes in the focus of competition.
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On November 3, Yicai learned from the 2026 GGII Humanoid Robot Annual Conference that data from GGII shows China's humanoid robot unit shipments are expected to exceed 50,000 units this year, but growth is slower than expected. As financing cools starting in the fourth quarter, it is expected that more than 15% of humanoid robot companies will be eliminated in the next three years.
Zheng Liyao, general manager of GGII, said that the commercialization of embodied intelligence reached a new level this year, but growth fell short of expectations. Global humanoid robot unit shipments are expected to reach nearly 60,000 units in 2026, with a market size of nearly US$2 billion, achieving doubled growth; among them, China's humanoid robot unit shipments will exceed 50,000 units, with a market size exceeding 10 billion yuan, also achieving doubled growth, but China's humanoid robot unit shipments this year will be lower than the forecast of more than 60,000 units made at the beginning of the year.
Behind this is the slower-than-expected pace of implementation of humanoid robot products. Zheng Liyao said that in terms of new products, China's humanoid robot industry this year shifted from solely "building the body" to advancing on two fronts: "body + model." However, the core problems remain unchanged, the industrial chain is still undergoing vertical integration, and most links are not yet complete. Industrial scenarios are the main focus of implementation; basic operations are widespread but have not yet been proven, and dexterous hand manipulation still requires application scenarios to be rolled out continuously.
In terms of financing, financing heat rose in the first three quarters of this year but cooled starting in the fourth quarter. GGII data shows that in the first three quarters of 2026, financing in China's humanoid robot body sector reached 81.82 billion yuan, and financing in other component sectors such as dexterous hands reached 14.83 billion yuan.
"The humanoid robot market will continue its price war in 2027." GGII forecasts that the overall selling price of joint modules will fall by about 30% year on year this year, and it is expected that next year small-sized humanoid robots under 1.2 meters will drop from 20,000 yuan this year to 18,000 yuan, medium-sized robots of 1.2 to 1.6 meters will drop from 115,000 yuan this year to 100,000 yuan, and large-sized robots above 1.6 meters will drop from 268,000 yuan this year to 234,000 yuan. The industry's focus is shifting to the delivery end, with competition over deployment and scenario applications.
"Under the dual constraints of funding and commercialization, the humanoid robot track will see its first major shakeout in 2027." Zheng Liyao predicts that more than 15% of humanoid robot companies will go bankrupt or be acquired in the next three years, mid-tier companies will begin to focus, leading companies will amplify their advantages, and top companies will seize ecosystem positions.
Going global will be a development trend. China's humanoid robot unit shipments overseas are also expected to achieve doubled growth in 2026. Zheng Liyao said that China is strong in a complete hardware supply chain, while overseas markets are strong in large model capabilities and high-value scenarios. However, going global requires crossing thresholds such as product certification, safety compliance, data compliance, and localized services, and companies need to move from selling products to building ecosystems.
"The humanoid robot industry is moving from prototype demonstrations to engineering delivery, and from general paradigms to single-point scenario implementation." Zheng Liyao believes that commercialization still faces the challenges of fragmented demand and a lack of "killer" applications, while industrialization needs to overcome the pain points of fragmented software and hardware and inconsistent interfaces, so capital has also become rational and is "de-bubbling."