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Keyvan's blog post argues that the claim in the Anthropic and Google SynthID-Text papers that "watermarking does not affect output quality" is based only on tests of single responses and does not cover multi-turn conversations or multiple-retry scenarios. The article cites the "diversity/detectability trade-off" in the SynthID-Text supplementary materials, pointing out that watermarking makes multiple responses to the same prompt more similar, potentially reducing the overall quality of generate-then-select systems. The article also cites a reproduction experiment by technical consultant Natzir Turrado: the watermarked model described a trip to a seaside town five times, with four openings nearly identical, while the unwatermarked model produced three different openings.
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An excellent history of scaling laws from @jietang. In 2020, we explored the limits of sparsity in Switch Transformers by routing each token to only 1 out of 2048 experts (in retrospect, a bold choice). The model had fewer than 3B activated parameters, but 1.6T total parameters (comparable to today's frontier models). The 1.6T model achieved better C4 perplexities than the T5 models using far less compute, set a new SOTA on TriviaQA, but was dumb as bricks on reasoning tasks like SuperGLUE. The lesson was that the optimal tokens-per-parameter ratio is highly task-dependent. Or as @NShazeer had already intuited: FLOPs were intelligence; parameters were knowledge!
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