Hongguo's user base surpasses Doubao's, as the commercialization tipping point for AI film and television draws institutional attention

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Hongguo has overtaken Doubao to become the second-largest app in the Douyin ecosystem, and overseas active users of AI comic dramas have exceeded 150 million. Against the backdrop of leapfrogging improvements in video generation model capabilities and sharply falling production costs, AI film and television content is extending from short dramas and comic dramas to medium- and long-form dramas and theatrical films.

Hongguo overtakes Doubao to become the second-largest app in the Douyin ecosystem

Data from QuestMobile's "China Mobile Internet Autumn Report" shows that in September 2026, the top three apps within the Douyin Group became Douyin, Hongguo Free Short Drama, and Doubao, with de-duplicated total user volumes of 1.029 billion, 430 million, and 419 million, respectively. Hongguo has officially surpassed Doubao to become the second-largest app in the Douyin Group.

According to the latest data from iiMedia Research, the market size of China's micro short dramas grew from 940 million yuan in 2020 to 50.44 billion yuan in 2024, reached 67.79 billion yuan in 2025, is projected to be 79.33 billion yuan in 2026, and is expected to reach 150.59 billion yuan by 2030. The industry continues to expand at a high speed and has become the core engine of incremental growth in film and television consumption.

Overseas markets are equally hot. According to a CCTV Finance report, about 10 Chinese companies have currently established overseas short drama platforms, and more than ten short drama apps going overseas have launched dedicated AI comic drama channels. The overall number of active users of AI comic dramas in overseas markets has exceeded 150 million; among the top ten paid overseas short drama applications, Chinese companies occupy nine seats.

On the production side, the cost of AI film and television is also falling sharply. At present, the minimum production cost per minute of a domestic AI comic drama can reach 350 yuan, and the production cycle for one comic drama has been compressed from the original 90 days to about 10 days; the cost of AI translation and dubbing for a single title has dropped to 300 to 500 yuan, more than 80% lower than the cost of manual translation and dubbing.

Institutions: Industry scale is expected to continue rapid expansion

Soochow Securities pointed out that AI film and television has crossed the commercialization threshold and is currently the fastest-scaling application form for large models on the consumer side. The DataEye Research Institute estimates that in 2026 the domestic market size of AI dramas and comic dramas will be about 40 billion yuan, with more than 600 million users; commercialization presents a progressive path of "short dramas cashing in first, medium- and long-form dramas enhancing value, and films depending on elasticity."

From the perspective of industry rhythm, Guosen Securities stated that after the release of Seedance 2.0, video generation quality improved significantly, and the monthly number of new realistic-human dramas among native AI dramas on the Douyin side rose to 25,000; from September to October this year, the penetration rate of AI dramas and comic dramas among leading domestic and overseas short drama apps rapidly increased to 90%. As AI video generation capabilities cross the threshold for commercial popularization, the industry scale is expected to continue rapid expansion.

In terms of beneficiary directions, AVIC Securities believes that AI has become the mainstream production paradigm. Considering the industry's current stage and valuation position, the recommended priority for allocation is content and IP, platform channels, AI tools, and going overseas; it suggests paying attention to content parties with reusable IP and AI production capabilities, long-video platforms with the ability to review while broadcasting, and video models, AI production platforms, and overseas short drama distribution channels.

Financing traders recently rushed to buy 6 concept stocks

According to East Money's "Hot Topics" compilation, there are currently 27 stocks in the A-share market involved in the AI film and television concept, with a combined total market value of about 394.5 billion yuan. Mango Excellent Media, Kunlun Wanwei, and Enlight Media rank in the top three by size.

Since the beginning of the year, the AI film and television concept has shown divergent trends, but it has clearly strengthened since October. Over the past week, 70% of concept stocks recorded stock price gains: among them, Huashi Technology surged 40% to rank first, Huazhi Digital Media and Wentou Holdings both rose more than 30%, and Mango Excellent Media, Haikan Shares, and Zhangyue Technology all rose more than 12%.

From the perspective of funds, East Money Choice data shows that over the past week, a total of 6 AI film and television concept stocks were favored by financing traders. Among them, Huashi Technology received 49 million yuan in additional leverage funds, Zhangyue Technology and Chinese Online attracted 27 million yuan and 19 million yuan respectively, and Hengdian Film and Television, Nanwei Software, and China Film each received more than 12 million yuan in net financing purchases.

In terms of performance, a total of 14 AI film and television companies had positive net profit attributable to parent companies in the first three quarters. Among them, Zhaochi Shares ranked first with a net profit of 764 million yuan, while Wasu Media and Haikan Shares each had net profit exceeding 250 million yuan; Sanwei Communication's net profit increased nearly 15-fold year on year, and Huazhi Digital Media and Kunlun Wanwei both saw year-on-year net profit growth exceeding 100%.

However, 13 stocks including Bona Film Group, Nanwei Software, and H&R Century Union recorded losses in the first three quarters, showing obvious performance divergence within the sector.

Mango Excellent Media's net profit fell sharply year on year in the first three quarters, but Q3 net profit grew nearly 4-fold quarter on quarter. The company's production "Post-Journey to the West" is the first AI long drama in China to land in a satellite TV prime-time slot, with total cross-platform dissemination exceeding 4 billion views over two rounds of broadcasting; it launched the "Mango Lingchuang Theater" and recently released a slate of 28 AIGC works at once, with many titles already online.

Chinese Online's AI medium-length drama "The Demon Emperor's Great Steward" launched in September, and the AI comic drama adapted from the same-name work "The Legend of Shen Li" has also recently officially launched; in the first half of the year, it cumulatively launched more than 1,200 AI short dramas, of which more than 10 exceeded 100 million views; the overseas short drama platform FlareFlow has surpassed 52 million registered users and achieved profitability in the first half of the year.

(Source: East Money Research Center) Middle of the body Embedded advertisement