Sierra Club analysis: Data centers could offset the U.S. power sector's emissions reductions over the past 15 years
The Sierra Club's analysis shows that by 2030, U.S. power-sector carbon dioxide emissions could reach 2.1 billion metric tons, about 42% higher than in 2025, offsetting the emissions reductions of the past 15 years. Electricity demand from AI infrastructure is growing faster than the clean-energy grid, and some tech companies are building self-supplied generation facilities that rely mainly on fossil fuels in order to bypass the queue for connecting to the public grid. By 2030, off-grid generation facilities built or commissioned by data center developers could produce more than 460 million metric tons of carbon dioxide per year, roughly equivalent to Mexico's annual carbon emissions.
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The Sierra Club's calculations link off-grid power generation for data centers to a reversal in power-sector emissions reductions, providing an order-of-magnitude reference for emissions in 2030.
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Sierra Club's analysis shows that by 2030, carbon dioxide emissions from the U.S. power sector could reach 2.1 billion metric tons, about 42% higher than 2025 levels. This projected increase would offset the emissions reductions achieved by the power sector over the past 15 years. As data centers' demand for resources continues to grow, the electricity demand of AI infrastructure is rising at a pace that the clean energy grid cannot keep up with. To bypass the slow queue for connecting to the public utility grid, some tech companies have built self-supplied power generation facilities that rely mainly on fossil fuels. By 2030, off-grid power generation facilities built or commissioned by data center developers could produce more than 460 million metric tons of carbon dioxide per year, roughly equivalent to Mexico's annual carbon emissions.