Morgan Stanley CEO: AI Capital Expenditure Could Reach $15 Trillion Over the Next Decade
Morgan Stanley CEO Ted Pick expects that AI-related capital expenditure could reach $10 trillion to $15 trillion over the next decade, with hyperscalers potentially investing $800 billion to $1 trillion annually over the next 7 to 12 years. He said current progress is only equivalent to the second inning of a nine-inning baseball game, with $2 trillion to $3 trillion in capital already committed or deployed. He also estimates that the productivity dividend from AI could raise U.S. real GDP growth by 50 to 70 basis points per year.
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Morgan Stanley CEO: AI capital expenditure could reach as high as $15 trillion over the next decade!
Cailian Press Zhou Ziyi Editor Lin Qi 2026-11-03 15:19
① The CEO of Morgan Stanley expects that AI-related capital expenditure over the next decade could reach $10 trillion to $15 trillion; ② He estimates that over the next 7 to 12 years, hyperscale cloud service providers among large tech companies may invest $800 billion to $1 trillion annually; ③ It is reported that $2 trillion to $3 trillion in capital has already been committed or actually deployed.
Cailian Press, November 3 (Editor Zhou Ziyi) Morgan Stanley CEO Ted Pick latest expects that AI-related capital expenditure over the next decade could reach $10 trillion to $15 trillion, making AI the most influential economic force since the birth of the internet.
Pick further broke down the sources of this spending. He estimates that over the next 7 to 12 years, hyperscale cloud service providers among large tech companies may invest $800 billion to $1 trillion annually. This means that the current wave of factory construction and equipment procurement is only an early stage of a long cycle.
Still in the early stage
Regarding Wall Street's long-standing doubts that cloud capital expenditure is difficult to convert into profits, Pick said he does not mind, using a baseball game as a metaphor for current progress: "We may only be in the second inning of a nine-inning game."
He believes that if the entire process of product development and infrastructure construction is taken into account, the range of $10 trillion to $15 trillion, although large, is not unreasonable.
To help investors understand the scale of this funding, Pick compared the projected spending with the size of the stock market. He pointed out that the total market capitalization of the S&P 500 is about $70 trillion, so even if investment ultimately reaches $15 trillion, it remains measurable in this context. He also disclosed that $2 trillion to $3 trillion in capital has already been committed or actually deployed.
Beyond the scale of capital expenditure, Pick also assessed the sustainability of investment returns. He estimates that the productivity dividend brought by AI could raise the growth rate of U.S. real gross domestic product (GDP) by 50 to 70 basis points per year, indicating that the benefits of this investment wave are not limited to a few tech giants but will also spill over to the broader economy.
From an industry perspective, Pick's forecast amounts to an endorsement of the supply chain spanning data centers, power supply, advanced chips and networking equipment, and the long-term order visibility of relevant participants is expected to be supported. But for investors, the key question in this debate has shifted from "whether to invest in AI" to "who can recoup costs in the computing power arms race."
Pick's remarks also further extend the market discussion about whether AI capital expenditure is overheating. Some investors worry that hyperscale cloud service providers' years-long expansion of data centers and computing capacity will squeeze free cash flow and near-term profits; supporters believe that computing power has become a new factor of production, and only by laying out in advance can companies establish a competitive advantage.
The pace of capital expenditure and commercialization progress of major companies are expected to become key focal points in the coming earnings seasons.
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Cailian Press Statement: The content of this article is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors operate at their own risk based on this.
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