Anthropic plans a Nasdaq IPO, targeting a market valuation of about $1 trillion

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Anthropic said it plans to hold an IPO on Nasdaq with a target market valuation of about $1 trillion; the offering price is expected to be set next Wednesday, with trading to begin next Thursday.

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Is the largest IPO in history coming? New models launched on the eve of listing; the trillion-dollar valuation faces a test

According to China Securities Overseas Information, Anthropic plans to hold its IPO next week. The market had previously expected the company's valuation to potentially exceed $1 trillion, with fundraising of up to $100 billion. If this fundraising size is ultimately achieved, Anthropic will surpass SpaceX, which raised funds in June this year, setting a new record for global IPO size.

However, the recent turbulence in the U.S. AI sector has added some uncertainty to this closely watched IPO.

New models launched on the eve of listing

Anthropic was founded in 2021 and is headquartered in San Francisco, USA. It was co-founded by former OpenAI executives Dario Amodei, Daniela Amodei and others.

Currently, Anthropic's Claude is one of the mainstream AI large-model products in the European and American markets. According to the prospectus Anthropic submitted to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Anthropic's revenue is growing very rapidly. In the first three quarters of this year, Anthropic achieved revenue of $33.2 billion, compared with about $2.5 billion in the same period last year, a year-on-year increase of about 1,206%; over the same period, its operating loss narrowed from $5.2 billion to $1.3 billion.

The main source of growth is enterprise customers. As of the end of September this year, the number of customers contributing more than $100,000 in revenue over the past 12 months exceeded 11,900, compared with only more than 950 a year earlier.

Ahead of its listing, Anthropic announced on November 9 local time the launch of two new models, Claude Fable 5.2 and Claude Mythos 5.2, further enhancing capabilities in areas such as programming, complex reasoning and scientific research. According to company disclosures, the two models are based on the same underlying technology; compared with the previous version, text generation speed is increased by up to 30%, and API input and output prices are both reduced by 20%.

Among them, Fable 5.2 is equipped with relatively strict cybersecurity and biological research safeguards and can be opened to ordinary users; Mythos 5.2 is mainly aimed at vetted cybersecurity and biomedical research institutions.

Anthropic said the new models have made progress in complex tasks such as software engineering, hardware design and scientific research, including assisting with large-scale software migration, designing electronic devices and solving some scientific research problems.

The trillion-dollar valuation faces a test

Despite its many accolades, the recent sharp volatility in the U.S. AI sector has made investors doubtful about Anthropic's offering valuation.

Previously, the market had at one point discussed that Anthropic's valuation could reach $2 trillion, but with the recent continued adjustment in the AI sector, investors' valuation expectations have clearly declined, and $1.5 trillion is currently seen as the upper limit of the valuation range. According to China Securities Overseas Information, three major investors planning to participate in the IPO believe the offering valuation may need to be further lowered. One of them said a more reasonable valuation might be close to $1 trillion.

According to media reports, Stephan Kemper, chief investment officer of BNP Paribas Wealth Management Germany, believes that considering the recent valuation adjustment in the AI sector, Anthropic's offering valuation may need to fall to the low end of the previous target range of $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion, or even be reduced by another 10% to 15% on that basis.

Max Kettner, chief multi-asset strategist at HSBC, said a valuation of about $1 trillion may be more prudent and help reduce the risk of sharp post-listing share price volatility. He believes that, compared with the huge fundraising size of the IPO, the secondary-market performance of the stock after listing is more important.

A mega IPO stirs market nerves

The impact of Anthropic's listing goes beyond the company itself. Over the past few years, investors have mainly participated in AI investment through "shovel sellers" such as Nvidia and Microsoft. After Anthropic's listing, the U.S. stock market will have a more direct and "purer" AI target, and its offering pricing will also provide a new reference for the valuations of similar companies.

Typically, large IPOs bring some disturbance to market funds. In a research report published earlier this year, HSBC Private Bank said large IPOs usually attract incremental capital rather than merely reallocating existing funds. The institution believes that the successful listing of these companies is expected to further validate the long-term demand of the AI industry and strengthen the investment logic for semiconductors, data center infrastructure and the broader AI industry chain.

However, Stephen Dover, chief market strategist at Franklin Templeton, warned that the market may have underestimated the stock supply pressure brought by mega IPOs. If multiple large companies list in a concentrated period, they will not only need to compete with each other for funds, but will also compete with already-listed growth companies for investors' capital allocation, potentially triggering capital rotation in software, semiconductor and AI-related sectors.

In addition, research by Russell Investments believes that the listing of giant companies such as Anthropic may further increase the concentration of technology stocks in growth indices. According to its estimates, under certain assumptions, by early 2028, SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI together could account for about 5.6% of the weight of the Russell 1000 Growth Index.

In addition to the impact at the funding level, this IPO also affects the investment pace of the AI industry chain. According to the prospectus, Anthropic has signed procurement and leasing commitments totaling about $895.4 billion, the vast majority of which are related to computing power and infrastructure, of which about $447.5 billion is expected to be spent before the end of 2030.

As of the end of September, the company had about $146.6 billion in liquidity resources, including cash, short-term investments and unused credit lines.

After successful fundraising, Anthropic will be able to have more funds to support model research and development and computing power expansion, and may further drive demand in industry chains such as AI chips, servers, cloud computing and data centers.

BlackRock said the AI industry is entering a new stage of capital investment. Previously, AI infrastructure construction mainly relied on the cash flow of technology giants themselves and private capital support, but as companies such as Anthropic expand long-term computing power procurement commitments, more funding needs will be met through IPOs, bond issuance and equity financing.

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